[5-DayForum] Counter Intuitive

Tue Nov 27 14:21:34 EST 2007

We are getting ready to do our 5-Day Sale this weekend (Dec & 2). After
reading the email from Lee, it made me feel less secure about moving
forward. We can't keep the house. We bought another house in town, that is
better suited for our home-based business and to downsize (empty-nesters),
right before the market changed in our area (Portland, OR). The market is
still good compared to other areas (actually almost all the basic stats are
up), but homes over a million dollars aren't moving (even though the market
was hot when we made the decision to move).

We've only had two showings. One in April and one in May - nothing since.
The Realtor says it's comparably priced, the house is beautiful, it's that
there is now a 5 year inventory for homes over a million. We very much want
to sell our home, but because we spent over $200,000 to totally replace the
siding and covered decks and did some updating (we had EFIS - synthetic
stucco), and we are using a line of credit to make the payments, we may owe
more than a 5-Day Sale could bring.

My biggest hesitation is how to handle the highest bid, if it is less than
we owe. Being objective, if someone bought it for what we owe, they would be
getting a great deal, so we are moving forward in hopes that the 3 Real
Buyers agree.

We've spent about $1,300 on advertising (the Oregonian was $1,000, alone,
for an ad that stands out a little more) and we put "referral ads" (pointing
them to the main ad) in other sections, since our country property is
between four towns. We also advertised in the four towns newspapers (all
with a little photo). Our advertising comes out on Wednesday and goes
through Sunday (in the Oregonian) and the community papers are one or two of
those days.

I will be putting it on Craig's List tomorrow (very popular here), but I am
concerned, based on your other responses) that we may get a skewed response
(25 without the 3 real buyers).

After reading the book and following the forum closely, for the last couple
of weeks, I'm pretty certain we are doing everything, by the book. There is
one gray area. Is it okay to leave the listing with the Agent in place,
until Friday evening, when we know we will know whether we are moving
forward, or not? It would be a major pain for my friend/Realtor to have all
the advertising withdrawn online and then have to put it back again, if we
don't get enough responses. Some of the online ads can not be removed
immediately, because they are sites she doesn't have control over.

If we are moving forward with the Saturday and Sunday Inspection, we will
sign papers to cancel the listing and owe nothing to the Realtor, unless we
have her review the contract, or she helps us write it up for a fee. She
wants to do what works best for us. Advise?

Anybody have a template of the rules?

Thanks in advance, for your advise,
Lisa

> From: Bill Effros <bill at effros.com>
> Reply-To: How To Sell Your Home in 5-Days
> <5-dayforum at mailman.howtosellyourhomein5days.com>
> Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2007 09:46:40 -0500
> To: How To Sell Your Home in 5-Days
> <5-dayforum at mailman.howtosellyourhomein5days.com>
> Subject: Re: [5-DayForum] Counter Intuitive
> 
> Thanks, Lee,
> 
> Just about the only thing I disagree with in what you have written is
> that the problem in the current market is unwilling buyers.  I think the
> problem is unwilling sellers.
> 
> Bill Effros
> 
> 
> 
> Lee McKinley wrote:
>> Hi Walker,
>> 
>> I am an investor in Albuquerque, NM. I am having great success with the
>> 5 day sale and look forward to more.
>> 
>> Here is the issue: As my wife and I have been moving through the latest
>> market conditions we find that even though a lot of homes are going back
>> to the banks, even more are up for sale. In our metro area we have a
>> population of 750,000 and over 9,000 homes on the market. In the month
>> of October there were only 640 closings. A lot less than 10%, Wow! I
>> have never seen it this saturated with such unwilling buyers. We have
>> even seen 5 day sales that are and are not following the routine and NOT
>> selling. The main reason, THE PRICE! People have to come to the
>> understanding, as hard as it is going to be, that the home they live in
>> now is not worth nearly what they want or even purchased it for. Perhaps
>> in another five years this will be true. If that is the case DON'T MOVE
>> and DON'T SELL RIGHT NOW and you won't be disappointed!
>> 
>> We have all done this to ourselves and cannot blame a technique such as
>> the 5 Day process because we want more than our home is worth. We all
>> have to remember that the 5 Day process brings us what our home is worth
>> on that DAY of the SELL! No MORE no LESS. I believe this is a fairly
>> easy concept to grasp, but then Real Estate is a very touchy feeling
>> industry and 99.9% of home owners are not going to feel their feelings
>> then move on and do their best to get the best price they can. Instead
>> of feeling their feelings they must feed them. This causes more
>> malcontent than one person needs to create.
>> 
>> I believe that most people (if they can) should be happy with what they
>> have (a roof over their head) and quit trying to compete with the
>> Jones's and stay where they are at. I know this sounds a bit harsh to
>> some of you, but then think about it without judgment and you will come
>> to see the truth. Now I understand that for a small majority must move
>> because of job, family and what not that this a choice has been made for
>> them in their past and must sell. However the rest of us need to just
>> weather the next several years. If you don't get what you want by Sunday
>> evening then your expectations are too high in that days market
>> conditions. Get over it, lower your price and try again. The most
>> persistent will sell their home for as close as they could get to "What
>> they wanted", and it might be a far cry away.
>> 
>> We run into it all the time. People want more than what anyone, and I
>> mean anyone, is willing to pay. With that being said we can surely see
>> how the "market value" can be arrived. The "market value" is a
>> constantly moving and hard to hit target. It is rarely hit. However,
>> Keep in mind that over the years and I believe Bill has hit on this
>> before, that it has only been the single family homes with the price
>> increase. In our neck of the woods anything outside of that has been
>> stabile and is still so today.
>> 
>> SO if you owe more than around $110/sqft for your home, I would sit
>> still for the next five years. If the opposite is true then sell for
>> $103 (advertising for 50% of that) and I bet money you get at least $105
>> to $107 and will be close to your goal of $110/sqft. Otherwise Sit still
>> and wait out the storm.
>> 
>> The 5 Day Process works. My wife and I have personally made millions
>> from it and continue to do so even in today's market. A good friend of
>> ours said (in one of his books) "real estate can make you money, weather
>> good market conditions or bad" I also believe the "Don" also agrees with
>> this statement.
>> 
>> I know if people didn't have trouble understanding things then Bill
>> might have more time to pursue other things that make him happier than
>> putting up with a lot of the comments and distain from all of you. God
>> bless you Bill, for you are trying your best and please know that there
>> are a few of us that have been out there for years following the 5 Day
>> process and making a lot of money doing so.
>> 
>> Wonderful in the South West!
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From:
>> 5-dayforum-bounces+lmckinley=mtekllc.com at mailman.howtosellyourhomein5day
>> s.com
>> [mailto:5-dayforum-bounces+lmckinley=mtekllc.com at mailman.howtosellyourho
>> mein5days.com] On Behalf Of Walker Igleheart
>> Sent: Saturday, November 24, 2007 8:04 AM
>> To: 5-dayforum at mailman.howtosellyourhomein5days.com
>> Subject: Re: [5-DayForum] Counter Intuitive
>> 
>> Hi Bill, thanks for the reply.
>> 
>> The more I think about it, the more I frame my doubts about the 5-day
>> auction this way: In order to arrive at the true "market value" for
>> anything, you must have enough bidders to achieve a statistically
>> significant representative sampling of the entire potential bidder's
>> pool. I
>> don't think comparing a stock sale, with potentially millions of
>> bidders, to
>> a home sale with just a few, is a fair comparison.
>> 
>> In your favor, I would guess that your "25 calls by Friday night" rule
>> is
>> designed to achieve the aim of a representative sampling. As far as I
>> know,
>> it does. Have you ever gotten a statistician to run the numbers? That
>> would
>> be interesting. 
>> 
>> Assuming that you are right and that the 25 call rule achieves a
>> representative sampling of the entire current bidder's pool, my
>> remaining
>> question is this:  Given the downturn in the market, is it not the case
>> that
>> many sellers are having trouble attracting the necessary 25 calls in
>> time to
>> go ahead with the auction? From what I've read on your forum this seems
>> to
>> be the case. It is my guess that the 5 day system works better in an up
>> market than it does in a down market simply because enough bidders will
>> show
>> up to be representative of the market as a whole.
>> 
>> Which goes back to what I said in my last post: I suspect sellers in the
>> current market will have to advertise more, and possibly for longer, in
>> order to attract the necessary numbers of bidders in order to achieve a
>> representative sampling of the current bidder pool.
>> 
>> This is all conjecture on my part, not having run any 5-day auctions. So
>> I
>> ask you: are you noticing more and more people calling off auctions due
>> to
>> lack of response? And if so, if people are following your directions to
>> the
>> letter and not getting enough bidders, what do you propose they do?
>> 
>> Thanks, 
>> 
>> Walker
>> 
>>  
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
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>> 
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